If you know me, you know I love crunching numbers. I’m like Michael Scott when he looks that accountant dead in the eye and says “crunch the numbers again” to an excel sheet. This is a fun article for me to write. If you don’t know, I update the franchise records page on the intel spreadsheet. Does anybody even look at this page besides me? Probably not, but I don't care. Having worked on this sheet for the last 2 years has given me more of an analytical look at each franchise and where they have trended in that time period so I thought why not write an article on it?

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Tier 1 (.600+ winning percentage)

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Tucson Javelinas (.701)

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Daniel and the Javies are no strangers to winning. Since the inception of the FCS, Daniel has had his squad at the top or near the top of the power rankings every season. The Javies are currently .500 or above in every head-to-head matchup over our 7 years, including a 4-3 series lead against Nashville which was a hole that took some time to climb out of. Nashville has unfortunately not kept the same trajectory as the boys out in Tucson. More on that to come. Tucson presents a weird estimate on their trajectory seeing that it will be statistically difficult for Daniel to hold onto that .701 winning percentage for much longer no matter how good his team is. However, I expect to see the Javies competing once again for a Victor Bowl in 2023 so that will even out this projection. Look for Daniel and the Javies to hang around the .700 mark through this season. 

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Overall Trajectory: Stagnant (=)

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Tier 2 (.550-.599 winning %)

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Nashville Riflemen (.585)

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Those that were around for the first two years of the FCS know just how dominant Brown and them Tennessee boys were. Back-to-back Victor Bowl titles helped this franchise get a headstart on their overall franchise winning percentage. Since then, Nashville has struggled to remain a contender. The 2021 season was mediocre for Brown’s standards and so far 2022 isn’t looking much better. There may a slight improvement with this squad compared to last years, but not enough to make any significant noise. Couple that with Brown’s lack of rookie picks and youth on the roster and the future does not seem to be much brighter. Brown’s shown that he can make it to the top on multiple occasions, but as of now I’d have to bet that Nashville will not sustain their current winning percentage and may dip down to tier 3 sooner rather than later. 

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Overall Trajectory: Negative (-)

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Little Rock Capitals (.551)

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What a turnaround, eh? Miller has shown the league that he means business since the day he took over the franchise. Outside of 1 lackluster year in 2020, Miller has proven he’s got what it takes. Last year's Victor Bowl should be enough evidence for him to talk the talk. Little Rock has cemented themselves as the kings of the East this season and I don’t see that changing. A stacked roster top to bottom puts the Caps in prime position to make another run at the trophy. This franchise may have the wheels to eventually catch Tucson and join that magnificent Tier 1 club if they can continue to make the strides they have made the last 2 years. This one’s an easy bet, the Caps WILL finish with better than .551 at seasons end. 

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Overall Trajectory: Positive (+)

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Tier 3 (.500-.549 winning %)

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Charleston Bombers (.531)

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The Bomb Squad has had their fair share of ups and downs. Charleston have had years where they seemed like they could win the Victor Bowl as well as years where they were scraping the bottom of the barrel. 2021 was not the best season for the Fly Boys as they narrowly missed the wild card bid out East. However, Enloe and the Bombers seem to have once again found their footing as they’ve had a great start to the 2022 season. Looking at this roster, it seems to fit the bill. Some playmakers, some duds, some unknowns. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Enloe make a strong push as the season progresses to try and narrow that gap between his Bomb Squad and the Caps. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see this team narrowly scrape into the playoff wildcard spot. Regardless, it’s positive momentum from last season and I don’t see the Bombers getting any worse. Call it a gamble, but maybe this franchise can make the leap into Tier 2 by season’s end. 

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Overall Trajectory: Positive (+)

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Colorado Ice Cats (.526)

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Like Little Rock, the IceCats are another franchise that got off to a quick start. Webb burst on the scene in 2018 and capped it off with a Victor Bowl title the following year. Since then, however, things have only trended downward for Webb and the Cats. Following the worst season under Webb’s watch, the IceCats are once again left on the outside looking in as they are currently struggling to keep their head above water. Looking at their young players, they do have a man by the name of Treylon Burks who headlined their 2022 rookie draft class. Up to this point however, Burks has yet to break out and we may not see it this season with Tannehill under center. I could see a scenario where the IceCats turn some of these negatives into small positives, but they still have a ways to go before even thinking of competing out west. For now, I’ll have to stick with what we do know which is their current situation does not bode well for their .526 win percentage. I don’t expect them to dip down to tier 4, but I won’t say it’s impossible.

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Overall Trajectory: Negative (-)

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Portland Rippers (.506)

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The ole’ Rippas. Hendricks was always known to be a .500 coach. Then, in 2020 he finally took the leap of faith and found himself in the Victor Bowl. Unfortunately for Portland, they were unsuccessful. Fast forward a year later to 2021 and Hendricks once again found himself competing for the big cheese and housed a 9-4 record to boot this time. Once again though, the Rippers were shot down and saw the Victor Bowl slip out of their hands. Hendricks may have earned a new name as the choke artist but hey, he still made it to the Victor Bowl two years running. That’s far better than being the .500 coach that he was labeled for the first few years in the FCS. This team has taken a bit of a step back this season but is still in the hunt. Hendricks may choke it away, but he always seems to find a way to make it to the big dance. I see Portland finishing a game or two above .500 this season and staying just a hair above the Mason-Dixon line at tier 3. 

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Overall Trajectory: Stagnant (=)

 

DC Anarchy (.506)

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Outside of their first two seasons, the Anarchy have sustained positive momentum and competed. Massey garnered his first Victor Bowl in 2020 and seemed to be tracking to be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. Unfortunately, he just has not been able to get over that hump again. Sitting at 9-4 in 2021, it seemed like the Anarchy could possibly go on another run. Unfortunately, they saw a quick exit in the wildcard and some big roster turnover on the horizon. Massey is no stranger to completely flipping his team as it’s become the norm for them historically. As it sits, the Anarchy have already waved the white flag on 2022. This would mark the first time in 4 seasons that the Anarchy failed to make a playoff appearance. As it’s trending, I don’t see this team making any major leaps. Massey is known for his quick works on the phone though so don’t be surprised to see this team pull a 180 and hop right back into contention. For now though, I’ll have to say this team is trending toward the red and may find themselves down to tier 4 by season’s end. 

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Overall Trajectory: Negative (-)

 

Tier 4 (.450-.499 winning %)

 

BSC Jacks (.475)

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The Jacks are a true model of “just below average”. Outside of 2020, this team always finds a way to compete. There may not be any mega awards housed out in Big Sky Country, but you gotta give The Mayor credit as he’s consistent with hanging around the .500 mark each season. 2021 marked a big season for the Jacks as they had once again finally found their way into the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Unfortunately, the fairy tale had to end and they were bounced in the Western Wildcard. 2022 feels eerily like 2021 as the Jacks are once again right there competing for that wildcard out west but don’t seem to have enough to make it over that hump. This team has some studs but just lacks their consistency. Kelce can only do so much and we need to see more health consistency out of McCaffrey. I could see this team once again falling into that last playoff spot and surprising some people. There are guys on this roster that can be great. It’s just a matter of when and if we see that greatness shine through. As stated earlier, I see this team with a similar story to 2021. Expect a tight race for the Western Wildcard and a sub .500 season. For that reason, I’ll call it like I see it and have Daniel and the Jacks staying put in tier 4 for now.

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Overall Trajectory: Stagnant (=)

 

Twin City Bootleggers (.468)

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Talk about a fall from grace. In the inaugural season of the FCS, this franchise seemed like it would be the big bully on the block every season after finishing 11-1. Their woes began in the playoffs where they were bounced in a massive upset. From that point on, this team was the definition of negative trajectory finishing worse than they did the year before year after year. Sensing a needed change, Blankenship decided to pack his bags and get as far away from Austin as possible. This landed him in the Twin Cities where him and his new franchise could get a fresh start. Thus far, it seems to have paid off as the Boots off to a hot start despite the cold weather up north. This team looks primed to make a playoff push as of now and challenge the Javies out west just like back in the good ole’ early days of the FCS. I do think this may be the year where we see Blankenship right the ship and get this franchise back to trending positive. Look for them to stay in Tier 4 but make some big strides along the way to be a fringe Tier 3 team going into next season.

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Overall Trajectory: Positive (+)

 

Tier 5 (.400-.449)

 

The Bronx Dominion (.438)

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To put it lightly, this franchise sucked mega eggs for a quite a while. A lone Cinderella run to the Eastern Conference Championship in 2017 was the only positive coming Barnes’ way until his franchise’s relocation to New York in 2020. Similar to Twin City, Barnes needed a fresh start in a new city but was held short in The Bronx’ first season at a lackluster 4-8. From that point on, the roster was completely torn down and restructured. To Barnes’ surprise, it worked. The Bronx seemed to be the team to beat in 2021 anchored by the stellar seasons of Derrick Henry and Cooper Kupp. However, once injury struck the floor fell through and the Dominion’s 10-3 was all for not as they were once again bounced in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, New York seems to have yet another talented roster as they currently find themselves standing shoulder to shoulder with the likes of Little Rock and Charleston. At this point, it’s hard not to say the Bronx won’t continue to raise their winning %. Fairly easy to do when you were at rock bottom for consecutive years though. Look for the Dominion to continue a positive rise and be a fringe Tier 4 team at season’s end. 

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Overall Trajectory: Positive (+)

 

Tier 6 (.000-.399)

 

Reno Cutthroats (.372)

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Gairhan and the Cutthroats have not had the success they would have hoped for coming into the FCS in 2019. The fish’ inaugural season saw a 7-5 finish and a trip to the Western conference finals but after that followed up with a 2-10 campaign in 2020 and then a 6-7 campaign in 2021 where they once again missed the playoffs. 2022 has not faired any better for Reno as are fighting for air towards the bottom of the standings. However, I do like this team and do have the expectation that they will win a few games and be a thorn in the side to its western conference foes. Look for Reno to remain stagnant in Tier 6 for the time being but squeak out a win or two that they shouldn’t. 

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Overall Trajectory: Stagnant (=)

 

Virginia Beach Rovers (.367)

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Our newest addition to the FCS also sits among the bottom of the barrel. Neese and the Rovers burst onto the scene in 2020 with a 7-5 record that landed them in the Eastern Conference Wildcard. However, growing pains hit the new franchise and the roster faced contract issues heading into 2021 where they finished at an abysmal 1-12. However, Neese licked his wounds and hopped back on the saddle and made some major moves toward the future in the 2022 offseason by acquiring 4 rookie draft picks and finding some diamonds in the rough. While I don’t see this team making the playoffs in 2022, I do see them making some big strides this season. Granted, that’s easy when you’re this low. Look for the Rovers to make a statement this season and win a game or two that they shouldn’t. Keep an eye on these fellas in the next year or two as they work their way toward Tier 5. 

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Overall Trajectory: Positive (+)

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