For What It's Worth
by Trent
March 15, 2022
I’m a numbers guy, which I think might be a little unusual for an artsy-fartsy type like myself. I love how observing analytics and gathering data can prove a point the way emotion cannot. When done correctly and accurately, it’s such a fool-proof method for showcasing success or failure.
One of my favorite things about our league only getting better with time is the increased data we have to look back on. Just like a fine wine derived from the south of France (idk), the longer we steward the FCS forward, the better our analytics will be as we can predict patterns, track success and better understand trends and trials.
The numbers are great, the wins never get old, and football is fun, but that’s every fantasy football league. The FCS isn’t every fantasy football league; it’s better. It’s more. More of everything. But I don’t need to harp on this; you’re obviously aware of this. The point being that the real essence of the FCS is how we truly seek to embody the fantasy aspect of fantasy football. Caden and I talk so often about ways in which we can further dive into the fantasy aspect.
I’m not here to talk about which of these is more important or vital to our league’s success, but just to point out how valuable they both are in their own respect. I love both and find that depending on the night, either one can be my waining thought before I fall asleep. What I am here to talk about is the rare occasion where I can combine the two and go all-in on something that encapsulates both. I hope you like deep dives because this one is a doozy.
Our world is run by one thing whether you like it not. Money dictates nearly every decision around us, and that may apply to the business world the most. Sporting leagues, despite the majority of the action taking place on the field, are recognized as some of the largest money-grabbing corporations in the world. Through the likes of marketing, viewership, merchandising and sponsorship just to name a few, these businesses can’t help but prioritize their revenue and capitalize on what’s in front of them.
From there we can follow the branch down to the franchises themselves. When you think of valuable teams in sports, you probably gravitate towards the likes of the New York Yankees (5.25B worth), Los Angeles Lakers (4.6B worth), Dallas Cowboys (6.5B worth) and those big soccer clubs that you can’t remember the names of (ex. Real Madrid; 4.25B worth).
Now obviously our team are worth zero dollars. I mean we don’t even have a monetary prize for winning the league so we are all literally worth nothing. But what if they were?
What if this league was real and our six years of data and analytics, combined with a rich grasp of the fantasy element, could help us determine your worth? We wanted to find out, so we did.
There is obviously a whole lot that goes into evaluating each franchise with so many moving parts, so buckle up as we take a journey to see who really is the most valuable franchise in the FCS. We will be navigating six overarching categories that will combine to quantify your worth as a franchise. Those categories are: 1) Market Value, 2) Sponsor Contributions, 3) Success Application, 4) Merchandise Revenue, 5) Facilities, and 6) Ticket Sales.
Market Value
Size does matter, and in small market league like the FCS it can end up making all the difference. Over 60% of our overall population is made up by only two teams, both out East. The top dog boasts a total population of 6.5 million as the Bronx’s radius also includes Brooklyn, Yonkers and Queens, making their team name quite fitting in this case. Massey and DC come in just a hair shy of this mark as their location makes them the epicenter of seven surrounding states, giving them a total of just over 6.3 million people to market to.
The other end of the spectrum highlights the quaint town of Great Falls, Montana. I can see the rusted welcome sign now as you come over the hill. Montana’s finest boasts a population of 84,000 people, just 1/75th of what New York has to offer.
These figures were taken from a Metropolitan Statistical Area found here.
The flip side of the population coin is how cost of living factors in. Considering these figures helps paint a more cohesive picture of what each region has to offer.
While the assumed order should likely be inversed from the population list, things don’t quite shape up that way. A few teams get an early leg up as they manage to place in the top half of both categories. Nashville does this the best as they rank fifth in population while also boasting the fifth best cost of living. Virginia Beach also shapes up well in this matter. Reno, however, is the glaring loser as they land in the bottom four of both categories, making their market value suffer tremendously.
These figures were taken from a Cost of Living Index article from Advisor Smith found here.
You can see below how things aligned as teams look to balance both factors and capitalize on their regional draw. In a perfect world you’d see the dots make a straight diagonal line from the top of the y-axis to the bottom, right corner of the x-axis, but again thats not how things line up. The graph highlights those that push towards the top right corner as they defy the odds and have a lot to offer (ex. Virginia Beach) and those that curl towards the bottom left as they suffer from low citizenship but high costs (ex. Reno).
All in all, these two opposing figures have to combine to create a figure that reflects how your location impacts your worth. By dividing your overall population with your cost of living index number, we arrive at value for each owner for where they call home.
Sponsor Contributions
This is a highly successful league, and a growing stature has caught the eye of some of the biggest brands in the world. Your franchise sponsor helps create an identity for your team that goes further than just wins and losses. Each owner has been given a corporate sponsor derived from your neck of the woods that has a rooting interest in your success.
Taking into account your market size, overall success rate and your track record of competing in primetime games, we've landed on a sponsor budget for each team. This budget dictates the type of sponsor you are able to take on. The bigger your sponsor budget, the more money your sponsor can allocate to your franchise which will in turn grow your overall value.
Keep in mind that the actual sponsors themselves do not give funds based off their size, but rather give according to what you've proven your worth as a team. For example, a team like Little Rock boasts one of the largest companies in the world as their corporate sponsor in Wal Mart, but the Walton's aren't giving more money to Miller simply because they are worth more. They are giving a certain amount based off his track record of winning, playing in high profile game so their marketed to the larger crowds, and the amount of people surrounding them.
The more you prove you are worthy of playing on the biggest stage and in front of the most fans, the more money these companies see they can make, and in turn the more money they'll be willing to hand out to you to show them off.
Below is a simple pie chart that visually highlights the split between our teams and what each sponsor has contributed to them.
Applying Success
Success on the field is the slow burn of building wealth for your overall evaluation, but it's also at the heart of it.
To quantify a team's overall success, you can see three varying factors that culminate in an assigned value for each franchise. Those categories are 1) number of players included in the top 50 overall scoring list, 2) total playoff appearances, and 3) all-time number of prime time games (GOTW). Lastly, Victor Bowl appearances and titles gives those teams a hearty boost and help separate them from the pack.
Merchandise Revenue
Finally, the brand! Not everything relies solely on the win percentage. We've seen teams loaded with stars fail to find FCS glory. Our merchandise category shifts the focus to the star power your squad has to offer. To quantify this section, we've gone back and added up how many top 25 players each owner has had at each position over their complete tenor in the league. These yearly figures are combined and added up to showcase an overall statistic that reflects how your powerhouse players have been able to help sell everything from game day jerseys to custom keychains. From there we also added on a few boosts based off 1) Your total win percentage and 2) a population integer to add a slight advantage when fanbases have more people to market to. Here are those results.
Facilties
This is where things really start to take shape. At this point, our categories start to overlap as they begin to factor into each other, and a lot factors into where a team plays on Sundays.
A team's stadium can reflect a lot about their identity and worth. To try and quantify this, we've created a stadium budget figure that derives from a franchise's market value, success value, merchandise revenue and sponsorship sharing. Adding these up gives each owner a stadium budget figure that helps decide what kind of venue they can call home. We have created six tiers of stadiums based off how much each owner has budgeted to spend. The better your facilities, the more fans you can host and charge for entry. The cool thing about this tiered system is in the future owners will have the opportunity to upgrade their stadium when their budget allows them to break into the next tier up.
Below are the stadium tiers and their cost to build.
As you can see, it's a long road to get from the Little Giants to the New York Giants. Over 2 billion dollars, actually. A few teams have got a journey ahead to boast a presentable playing venue while others have their eye on the $2.5 billion megaplex. All in all, this is an owner's first real opportunity to have some say in what they are worth. If you want to upgrade your stadium, you gotta show you mean business on the field you play on now. Goals are great, but ultimately talk is cheap. You gotta win on Sundays to win fans, win sponsorship dollars and win that ability make your word mean something. The quickest way to climb these tiers is to build up that win percentage.
Below you can see where you can currently stand facility wise. A few owners are currently on the cusp of an upgrade as Nashville and Colorado begins plans for a new stadium. DC currently has a tier all to themselves as they remain the closest franchise to reaching the tippy-top of facilities as they approach tier 6. The other end of the spectrum highlights Reno and BSC bringing up the rear as they seek out an opportunity to spring into tier 2 with their first upgrade ever.
The most intriguing thing about this list might be five franchises currently operating out of tier 4. The next few years will prove to be critical as these five will look to leapfrog the competition and be the first to join the Anarchy in tier 5.
Ticket Sales
Winning creates opportunity. It elicits emotion, instills hope and brings people together. It's been just over two years since Arkansas was destroyed at home against Western Kentucky in front of a stadium that was half full, and trust me, a stadium that is actually half full really feels about 25% full, especially when you're down 35-7 at the half in a gimme non-con game. In the two years since we've seen what winning can do for a program as the Hogs beat up on Texas in front of a sold out crowd that believed. To sell tickets you have to have a product to sell, and I can tell you first hand how much easier life is when the product sells itself.
The same philosophy applies here. To sell out your stadium, you need a few things to happen. The first one, unfortunately, is out of your control, but you need willing fans around you. Your market is important to sell tickets, but's it's not the only factor. Winning is your other key to success to get people through your gates. To reach a sellout figure for each franchise, we've take each team's all-time win percentage combined with a staggered integer to find a worthy number. The more success your team has, the more likely you'll be able to sell tickets. From there, we had to locate an average ticket price for each team to know how much revenue they could bring in. This is where your market value is inserted into the mix.
Despite a lower win and sellout percentage, team's like the Bootleggers are able to charge more for tickets than for example Portland because of where they are located, even though the Rippers have a better tradition of success. However, regardless of how much tickets cost, you still have to sell them, which is why Hendricks ends up having a higher ticket revenue than the Boots since his sellout percentage is higher. You also get a sales bonus for your current stadium tier. Fans are obviously going to be drawn to a state-of-the-art venue and be willing to pay more when the team takes an interest in catering to them specifically. The experience matters, too.
Facilities and ticket sales work in conjunction as the quickest way to jump an opponent from a higher spot on the evaluation list. The more you win, the faster you can upgrade to a new stadium, have more seats to fill and charge more money for access. That's more money every game as you push ahead to the next tier.
Final Evaluations
It's finally time to add up each category and see the final evaluation given to each franchise! No matter where you fall on the list, there is always an opportunity to move up, or down. Although you can't fall down any tiers, a lackluster couple of years could see the teams around you take advantage and upgrade as you stay stagnant. All in all, it takes success to climb the ladder. Recruiting star power and racking up wins will slowly take hold and allow you to level up. You can see first hand how influential winning is as our champions sit towards the top. Keep pushing and maintain a good balance of current and future success and you might just be the team to knock our top dog off their throne.
Hover to view final evaluation.
Franchise Breakdown
Now that you know where you stand, take a deeper look into how got there. Below is a team-by-team breakdown of how your wealth was created. Take some time to examine how each category factors as some carry a bulk of the weight and others need some love to begin to make a meaningful impact.
