Next Gen
by Trent & Caden
May 14, 2021
The FCS is at a crossroads.
New initiatives, although positive and immersive, have created a period of uncertainty in our league. What is the most accurate price tag for a top tier WR in the RFA? With an added keeper spot, where should my draft capital sit to be able to assemble a competitive squad? As things continue to progress, it’s hard to pinpoint league norms and means.
These uncertainties will certainly carry over to the 2021 FCS draft. That bonus 6th keeper spot, combined with a deep rookie class, have owners questioning the value of these available players. Less money to spend but more potential than ever before to spend it on.
All uncertainty aside, it’s going to be a blast. I think the days of watching rookie bids tick back and forth all the way into the 70’s might be over, but all in all that may be for the best. Less money means more competitive bidding wars that could be shorter but more widespread. So with all that being said, let’s dive into these top notch rookies ready to be bid on and find their new FCS city to call home.
Najee Harris >>> Little Rock Capitals
Well let’s get right into it. Most expert's top RB goes to the top spot for a starting RB to land. Najee Harris (that’s pronounced nah-gee) just feels like a Steeler, right? Broad, powerful back who lowers his head into contact. Tomlin brings a new, shiny running back into a system that is well documented as being a run-first offense who often relies on a single guy. Harris’ strength and vision make him a perfect fit for a system like that. The only deterrent heading into week 1 is the offensive line in Pittsburgh that leaves a lot to be desired. We aren’t sure yet how big a factor this will be for Harris, but if he struggles out of the gate to find the open field it could show his ceiling, at least for year one before changes are made. Personally, I don’t envision that hindering him enough to cripple his production in this offense. Harris is this year’s Zeke, Leonard, Kareem, Saquon, and Clyde so bring our your wallets. Charleston, DC and Little Rock are all teams who appear to have an eye on Najee and the capital to snag him, but we think the Capital’s capital will outlast the rest. Harris lands in Little Rock for around $50.
Ja'Marr Chase >>> DC Anarchy
Here’s a guy who could give us a Justin Jefferson like rookie campaign, and that could very well be his floor. For Cincy to pass up drafting protection for their QB in the first round it was going to take someone truly special to emerge. Ja’Marr is that special. Despite sitting out the 2020 season, he remained the top wideout prospect and didn’t skip a beat for scouts. His burst, along with his above-average size, makes Chase someone who could very well become the next big thing in fantasy football, and did I mention he now has the same guy throwing him the ball that led him to break 2 SEC receiving records in 2019? Chase at worst feels like a WR3 this season, so if you draft him you better plan on starting him once he gets his feet wet. Massey and the Anarchy use their hefty draft capital to buy into some young talent and spend $32 for Ja’Marr.
Kyle Pitts >>> Reno
This man is a generational tight end prospect. His athleticism and receiving prowess have him projected to become one of the greats before he’s even stepped foot on the field in Atlanta. Pitts possesses a rare combination of elite size, speed, and catching ability. He has been knocked for his blocking ability, but no one cares about blocking in fantasy. This guy is going to be lined up out wide more than blocking which may result in a change of position from TE to WR on fantasy platforms down the road. As far as a comp is concerned, we look for him to resemble a WR more than a TE. We think he resembles a Calvin Johnson archetype. Pitts will be a plug and play TE at the very start of his career. FCS franchises have already been clamoring about his ability. One of the teams making comments are the Reno Cutthroats who would be a perfect fit. The fact that he is a TE will likely keep the price lower than it would if he was already designated as a WR, so we're thinking he stays in the $20-$25 range.
DeVonta Smith >>> Colorado
Insert Heisman pose. DeVonta Smith has proven his ability and then some. His long, lanky strides make his route running impeccable. On top of that, he catches almost everything that is thrown his way. His major weakness has been very well-documented—his size. Can a player with his body type make it in the NFL? We think the answer to that would be yes. Ask Marvin Harrison. Having said that, I think it’s safe to say that the size factor will back some FCS teams off and potentially lower his price to some of his peers. We still look for him to land on a WR needy team with the expectation that he can be a WR3 from the jump. He would fit right in with Chris Webb and the IceCats at or slightly below a $20 winning bid.
Travis Etienne >>> Virginia Beach
Etienne might have the widest spectrum of outcomes of anyone on this list. An explosive playmaker with great hands, Travis (rightfully so) garnered first round attention and went to Jacksonville late on Thursday night. Similar to Chase, Etienne has a leg up being paired back up with his signal caller from college which can only make things easier for his adjustment to the league. The downside here is the crowded backfield in Florida. James Robinson highlights a group that has already proven they can get things done on the ground, so adding first round talent leaves a lot of people scratching their heads. Will Etienne really be a third down back like Meyer has said, or will he be more like the Alvin Kamara to Robinson’s Mark Ingram? And then where, if at all, does Carlos Hyde fit in to the scheme? Usage aside, one owner has a little more skin in the game to land Etienne and make sure he gets the best out of the Jaguars backfield. Travis finds a new home in Virginia Beach for $32 and hopes to find a starting role for the Rovers quickly.
Jaylen Waddle >>> Nashville
You want electric? Put in a bid for Jaylen Waddle. This guy is blazing fast. What makes his speed even better is the fact that he plays under control unlike his former teammate Henry Ruggs. One possible concern is the fact that he is coming off of a pretty pesky ankle injury, but he seems to have pretty well recovered. We look for Waddle to be a guy that can be plugged in immediately as a possible WR2, but more ideally a WR3 to minimize the risk. Either way, this guy is going to be drafted to be a starter and has the potential to be a superstar for a lucky FCS team. The name Tyreek Hill gets thrown around too easily with prospects, but we think Waddle’s play style and build make this one more acceptable. Look for Waddle to find a home in Nashville. They would need to do some finagling to make the dollars work by moving a big contract, but we don’t put it past him. He likely won’t go for cheap, though. We look for his price to land in the mid to upper 20's.
Trevor Lawrence >>> Tucson
The #1 overall pick has enough buzz to be taken come time for the draft. The hype is truly unmatched being compared to Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, and John Elway. I mean he has everything you want in a QB prospect from the size to the accuracy to the decision making. He has some lofty expectations on him. Having said that, those traits don’t always translate into being a good fantasy option. I mean look at Tom Brady. In fantasy, the QBs that are at the top of the fantasy points at the end of the year typically have a high rushing upside which Lawrence doesn’t project to have. Having said that, he seems to be a player that will be consistent and could have fantasy success similar to Justin Herbert by getting his fantasy points solely with his arm. A low risk, high floor pick seems to be something that would entice Tucson. Look for Lawrence to go for $4 bucks and to serve as the Javies QB2.
Michael Carter >>> BSC
Michael Carter has done nothing but produce the last 2 years at UNC. He really is a complete back and is good at all of things that makes for a successful RB. Good vision, good pass-catching, good blocking, good vision, and good ball security. Another thing he has working for him is that he has a very clear path to having a heavy workload on the Jets. So, what’s his downside? Well, Carter doesn’t seem to be elite at any particular category. He also has average speed and average size. However, the good outweighs the bad and he is sure to land on an FCS roster draft night. We expect him to go on the cheap around $8 to a team that has lowkey hopes that he blossoms into a RB2 by year’s end. The BSC Jacks make a lot of sense.
Justin Fields >>> Austin
Fields looks to be set up pretty well to land a starting job early this fall if not directly from the jump. He’s a duel-threat quarterback with above average awareness and tremendous accuracy. His decision making came under scrutiny during the scouting process, but there really isn’t that much to worry about regarding his floor here. I haven’t seen much to cause concern for how well he goes through his reads. If Chicago does what we think they’ll do, Fields will get the keys pretty quick after trading up to get what they hope is their franchise signal caller. Blankenship hopes to land the next Deshawn Watson grabbing Fields later in the evening for a dollar. It could pay off sooner rather than later.
Javonte Williams >>> Charleston
Williams has the mold of a true three down workhorse. Apparently, some NFL teams had him as their top RB prospect going into the draft. His contact balance and vision are reminiscent of a younger Mark Ingram. He is also really explosive and gets to the second level of a defense in a blink. He has room to improve in his pass-catching, but his rushing ability offsets that. Another is of concern is the fact that he is currently in an RB room with Melvin Gordon. Despite the concerns, acquiring an RB with Williams potential mixed with the slim pickens at the position means a team will have to pay up. We think the Bombers would be a perfect fit around $20. He has the cash and would be patient during Williams’ accent as most are expecting Charleston to have a rebuilding year.
Elijah Moore >>> Portland Rippers
Moore didn’t see his name come up until day 2 of the draft, but don’t let that fool you. He’s a sharp route runner who gets off the line aggressively fast. Coming into the league with new quarterback Zach Wilson doesn’t hurt, either. Despite the pros, this New York WR room is surprisingly pretty deep, placing Moore right in the middle of what could be a fight for targets. The Jets brought in Corey Davis to pair with the veteran Jamison Crowder who also sit alongside second year wideout Denzel Mims out of Baylor. Between the crowded crew of pass catchers and a bleak track record for rookie wide receivers, it’s better to tamper your expectations for Elijah Moore, at least in year one, but he is definitely worth a flyer. Portland grabs him for a buck to fill one of their last view roster spots as time runs out.
Kadarius Toney >>> The Bronx
Toney’s draft stock benefitted heavily from the Tyreek Hill effect as NFL GM’s have been searching for their own version of Cheetah for years. He’s a lightning quick slot receiver with an aggressive burst and enough weight to offset his small frame… but is he ready to make an impact in 2021? Toney just has too many similarities to Philly’s Jalen Reagor for me to get excited about him producing this year. Another deterrent is NYG having a different new and shiny toy in that offense in Kenny Golladay, who has already proven his worth to the league. Despite these two having completely different frames and skillsets, I still think Toney will lack consistency and bounce back and forth between the waiver wire and 4 or 5 team benches in 2021. I see him going as a flyer to a team with a dollar and a roster spot to spare hoping for the best. Barnes grabs him right before we head out to the pool to light up a cigar.